by Alex Coopersmith, opinions editor & resident political analyst (qualifications include sharing an elevator ride with John McCain)

The State of the Union is the most important non-important speech of the year. In it, the President tells the nation that the state of the union is strong, then proceeds to lay out his legislative goals and message for the year while getting multiple applause lines, prompting either partisan or bi-partisan applause.

However, very few Americans remember the message of the State of the Union after it occurs. Don’t believe me? Name a famous State of the Union address. Chances are, you can’t.

That stated, this is the most watched political speech of the year, so I thought I would give my thoughts on the main proposals President Obama announced, and their chances of actually happening. Finally, if you appreciate satire, there is a fantastic piece in Slate here about how the State of the Union would be covered if it happened in a different country. But let the politics begin!

(This analysis is in proposal, implementation form. I state the proposal, my thoughts on it, and if it will or will not happen)

PROPOSAL: Veto a bill that takes away health insurance (changes Obamacare), unravels the new rules on Wall Street (weakens Dodd-Frank) or re-fights a past battle on immigration (doesn’t do comprehensive immigration reform).

• Will it happen?: Yes. The veto is a constitutional right, and it is all but guaranteed that there will not be a 2/3 majority in both chambers than can override the veto, as Republican do not have a 2/3 majority in either chamber of congress. (Democrats support Obama, Republicans don’t and that doesn’t change on any issue.)

PROPOSAL: Do more than not shut down the government.

• Will it happen?: Maybe. I doubt that there will be a government shutdown in 2015 or 2016 because it is so close to the 2016 election, and very few candidates run on the platform of shutting down the government. In addition the new Senate Republican Majority claims that it wants to prove that they can govern, and a key aspect of governing competency is not shutting the government down.

PROPOSAL: Childcare tax cut. Every middle-class and low-income family in America with a young child gets a $3,000 tax cut per child to help pay for childcare.

• Will it happen?: Probably not. Though states like Oklahoma have universal Pre-K and other laws that help child development, showing that Republicans can support it, it won’t happen on a national level because of intense opposition to Obama — which exists partially because of his executive order that went around Congress and quasi-legalized five million undocumented immigrants. (This is actually a reason why any proposal that requires Congress to do something will probably not happen.)

PROPOSAL: Paid sick leave/maternity leave. At present, if you are sick and miss work, you don’t have to be paid for the days you miss. Similarly if you’re pregnant and miss work to have a baby, you aren’t paid for the time missed. The United States is the only advanced country on Earth that doesn’t guarantee this to their workers. American Exceptionalism!

• Will it happen?: No. Same reasons as above.

PROPOSAL: Pass a law requiring that men and women be paid the same for equal work. (It’s 2015, this should have happened by now)

• Will it happen?: There is a photo of the audience when Obama proposed this: the only people applauding this are women, and the caption is “Look at all the men standing and clapping for equal pay for women.” Won’t happen.

Look at all the men standing and clapping for equal pay for women! pic.twitter.com/O8AQyJBf3p

— Rebecca Reis (@rebAReis) January 21, 2015

 

PROPOSAL: Raise the minimum wage

• Will it happen?: No. You think for a second that a Republican-controlled house and Senate would suddenly reverse course and pass a bill that Democrats really want? It’s cute that you think politics still works that way.

PROPOSAL: Free community college!

• Will it happen?: Though this would cost $60 billion, it has some Republican support (and the support of every community college student). But it most likely won’t happen, because President Obama proposed it.

PROPOSAL: Bipartisan infrastructure plan.

• Will it happen?: No. Congressman John Boehner (the Speaker of the House) rolled his eyes when Obama announced this. Dead on arrival.

PROPOSAL: Repealing state community broadband laws. Most Americans only have one choice when buying high-speed internet, and are often over charged and dissatisfied with the speed (I’m looking at you, Suddenlink and Verizon and Comcast and Time Warner.) Many cities have installed their own broadband systems — which not only are cheaper and faster, but also make the city have a profit. However, many states have laws against community broadband that prevent cities from developing alternatives. This is a law that would decrease the cost of high-speed internet, allow more people to have high-speed internet and allow cities to generate more revenue.

• Will it happen?: Sadly, no. The cable/telecommunications industry is incredibly powerful and has so much sway over members of Congress that this very good idea is unlikely to pass.

PROPOSAL: Veto any bill that increases sanctions on Iran.

• Will it happen?: Yes. However, being anti-Iran has never hurt a member of Congress, and there might be enough votes to override a presidential veto.

PROPOSAL: Protect the Free and Open Internet (Net Neutrality). THIS IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT, AND YOU SHOULD WATCH THIS JOHN OLIVER VIDEO SHOWING EXACTLY WHAT OBAMA WANTS TO DO HERE!

• Will it happen?: Even though net neutrality hurts only the ever popular cable/telecommunications companies, like I said earlier, Republicans don’t like doing anything Obama proposes. They have an alternative plan, but it is pretty weak and doesn’t solve the real problem.